I assigned this problem to my math students to apply linear analysis in order to demonstrate how close we are to a 2 degree increase in global temperature. Most scientists agree that a 2 degree warmer world would lead to profound changes in climate with higher sea levels, more intense hurricanes, disappearing coral, etc.
Real-World Application: The Importance of Two Degrees
a. Use any two points in the following data to create a linear model for atmospheric CO2 level (ppm) as a function of time (year). This data is from Dr. Peter Tans, NOAA/GML (gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/) and Dr. Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/)
b. Plot this data and your linear model on the same graph.
c. Use your linear model from part (a) to predict what the CO2 level will be in the year 2030.
f(2030)=2.447(2030)-4529.304=438.106 ppm
d. Calculate the change in CO2 levels between 2030 and 2022, ΔC.
C=438.106-418.53=19.576
e. A rule of thumb relationship between CO2 levels and global temperature increase can be given by:
ΔC = 20ΔT
Where ΔC is the change in CO2 levels and ΔT is the change in temperature in °C.
(“Linear Global Temperature Correlation to Carbon Dioxide” by Thomas F. Valone, published in Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, Vo. 9, No. 3, 2021).
Use the value of ΔC you calculated in part (d) to compute the global temperature increase, ΔT, between 2022 and 2030.
T=C/20=19.576/20=0.979°C
f. In 2022 the global temperature was 1.06°C warmer than the pre-industrial period from 1880 – 1900. (“Climate Change: Global Temperature” by Rebecca Lindsey and Luann Dahlman, published in NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, January 18, 2023).
Use the value of ΔT you calculated in part (e) to predict how much warmer the earth’s global temperature will be in 2030.
T=1.06+0.979=2.04°C
According to this model the global temperature in 2030 will be 2.04°C warmer than the pre-industrial period from 1880 – 1900
Have students research why a 2°C increase in global temperature is of concern. Have them pick one aspect of climate change, for example, sea levels, or hurricanes, or corals, etc. and discuss how these would be affected if global temperatures were to rise by 2°C.